Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Portland Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sectoer job losses will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Center at the said in its latesty California and Metro Forecast released The forecastsaid California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percent earlyy next year, and will remainn in double-digits until the end of 2011. The centerf produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United California and ninemetro areas, from Sacrament to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay Area. In the Sacramentok area, unemployment will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percentt next year, before dipping to 10.2 percent in the report said.
Unemployment is expected to reacbh 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecasty to rebound in the third quarter of next when job growth will improveto 0.8 A “strong rebound is expected to take place in professionao and business, and educational and health services sectors,” the reporft said of Sacramento. “Job growth is expecte d to have its first positive full yearat 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percenrt next year.
San Jose and San Franciscoo will be the first metro areas in Northern California to return totheir pre-recession employment levels, in the secone and third quarters of respectively, the study Sacramento and Merced will be among the last nortb state metro areas to regaij peak employment, in fourth-quarter 2013. Valleji is last, with a return expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Centra Valley will be hard hit by the combinationh of recent state tax increases and massive expectedbudgert cuts, the Business Forecasting Center said.
“The stater budget crisis is a dangerouxs aftershock to a region still reeling from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disastert area, but most of its “economicc shocks are cyclical in naturre rather than permanent changes such as closed militar y bases,” the news release said. Construction continues to lead job losses inpercentage terms, declininb another 15 percent to 110,00 0 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the declineein 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this year. Retail sales will not return to thei 2007 leveluntil 2011.
New car and truck sales will fallbelowe 1.06 million in 2009, after exceeding 2 millionn for most of the decade. Sales will graduallyt increase as theeconomy recovers, reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 million in 2011. • Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,00o units, more than 80 percent below the leveles seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing starts will be back to 100,000p units in 2011, and exceed 150,0090 by 2013. • Health care is the only sector that will not shrinmthis year. The gain of 13,000 healthu care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowesf growth this decade. • Personal income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfarm payrollsx will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewide during the two-year • The California economy will finally hit bottom in the fourth quarter of this year, and will begimn a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 befored many key economic indicators such as unemployment returnb tohealthy levels. • The state’x recession should end in the last quarter ofthis year, but the job marketg will remain weak through most of next year.